The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Ether (ETH) futures this week, following the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs in 2021. However, the regulator has yet to approve any of the numerous requests for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which invest in the cryptocurrency’s current price.
Economist Alex Krüger believes this may soon change. In a tweet, he stated that he believes the probability of the SEC approving a spot Bitcoin ETF is currently 70%. Furthermore, he predicts that the product will finally enter the market in January 2024.
Krüger explained that his prediction is based on the SEC’s timeline for approving or rejecting requests. If the SEC rejects the spot Bitcoin ETF requests, he suggests that the price of the largest cryptocurrency could drop to $23,000, a 17.5% decrease from the current price of $27,900. On the other hand, if the SEC approves a BTC ETF “today,” the price of Bitcoin could reach “yearly all-time highs within a week.”
Former BlackRock managing director Steven Schoenfield, who now serves as CEO of MarketVector Indexes, predicts that Bitcoin ETF approvals will come within three to six months. This suggests a timeframe between December 2023 and March 2024.
In total, there are 16 spot ETF requests awaiting approval from the SEC, including one from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.