Bitcoin Surges in September, Breaking a Four-Year Trend – What Can We Expect in October?

September has historically been a bad month for Bitcoin (BTC), but that trend changed this year in 2023. The largest cryptocurrency in the market ended last month with a nearly 4% increase, rising from the range of $26,000 to just over $27,000 on the last day of the month.

This is the first time that BTC has ended the ninth month of the year on a high since 2016. The only two previous times Bitcoin finished “in the green” were in 2016 and 2015, according to data from the past 11 years provided by the explorer Coinglass.

From 2017 to 2022, BTC always closed September with a decline, with depreciations ranging from -3.12% to -13.38%.

In addition to breaking a historical downward trend in September, BTC also ended a month on a high following two consecutive months of decline. After a 11.29% decrease in August and a 4.02% decrease in July, the cryptocurrency achieved a positive month.

However, this negative track record caused BTC to close the third quarter with a total devaluation of 11%, marking the first negative third quarter in 2023. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency has still risen 62% year-to-date.

Looking ahead to October, the outlook for Bitcoin is predominantly positive. As shown in the table above, the only years when BTC closed October in the red were 2018 (-3.83%) and 2014 (-12.95%). While past returns do not guarantee future returns, analysts’ predictions are optimistic for this month. In fact, the projection is positive for the entire fourth quarter of the year.

According to the cryptocurrency analysis company Matrixport, the fourth quarter has historically been the strongest for Bitcoin’s performance. The average return has been over 35% in the past nine years. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach $37,000 by the end of the year.

Michael van de Poppe, a popular cryptocurrency analyst, is even more optimistic. He believes that BTC can reach $40,000.

“Welcome to Uptober [up + October]. Welcome to the fourth quarter, which is heading towards an excellent quarter, potentially fueled by ETF approvals and recovery before the halving. Potentially, Bitcoin at $40,000 is reasonable,” he wrote on Twitter.

It seems that Bitcoin is defying historical trends and could be on track for a strong performance in the coming months, according to analysts.

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